OK. Last week was a slight disaster in terms of absolute results. Only got 7 of 16 games right. However, it’s not like the analysts at ESPN did better. I’m still tied with Tom Jackson in the lead at 19 rights and 13 wrongs overall. Best strategy last week would have been just to bet straight up home teams cause 10 of the 16 home teams won. That was better than anybody in my pool and anybody at ESPN.
This week, I’ve updated my analytical system to have more Vegas picks vs actual results in different situations like divisional, conference and inter-conference games. As well, I have how Vegas had fared for each team on the road and at home, in terms of whether Vegas right or wrong in their picks, not whether the team was good at home or on the road. That’s one factor Vegas already accounted for. My system is a bit like a fine tuning correction to Vegas’ system, if you will. I’m already two games ahead of their picks on the year.
This improved system of mine made a lot of the picks rather “easy” by “logical” deduction of the data I have. The more artsy, and possibly correct, term would be by “interpretation” of the data I have, which is part art and part science. Ironically, it found only one correction to Vegas’ picks, which is the Buffalo Bills over the Miami Dolphins. My guts say the same so I’m going with Buffalo. Otherwise, I’m going with what Vegas says.
Going through with my improved system, these are my picks for winners in week 3 of the 2015 NFL season.
Last week: 7-9
Overall: 19-13 (tied with best ESPN analyst, Tom Jackson after 2 weeks)