The US flew past 100,000 COVID-19 cases today, just a day after passing China’s total of about 81,000. It’s at 104,000 as I write this.
With world totals at 596,000 cases at this time, the US has 17.4% of the world’s cases, and the US has barely started climbing “the curve” that won’t be flattening any time soon!
To have more than the rest of the world, the US needs to hit 50.01% of world totals. That doesn’t seem a stretch, to be honest, the way the US rates are climbing and knowing how they are still far behind in testing all the people they should.
The math isn’t that hard to see. One day soon enough, the US WILL have more COVID-19 cases than the rest of the world combined.
It’s just a matter of when… not if, very sadly.
COVID-19 numbers are reported by number cases, which is good to know, but hard to compare when you have populations that are vastly different. You can’t just compare the US numbers to the Chinese numbers given the Chinese population is roughly 4.25X the US population. That’s partly why it’s crazy that the US COVID-19 numbers are already surpassing the Chinese numbers, and just within a few week of when things started getting serious! You’d be looking at like 350,000 cases in China if the same thing were happening, not 80,000!!!
Being able to compare by prevalence, or how widespread something is “per capita” of a population, is why I made this Tableau viz for a better comparison. I started with just the Canadian provinces, though, due to less complicated data. I will be back with one for global data by the end of this upcoming weekend, I hope, and will link it here.
Looking at the Canadian data, I see that my little province of Nova Scotia, with about 0.95 million people, is doing worse than the big province of Ontario that is shutting down more than we are. That said, they should be, because the potential for maximum damage that can be done for them is like 10X that for us, especially with potential hot spots of huge populations like the city of Toronto.
Prevalence won’t tell you that story, no. But neither will case totals. However, what prevalence will still tell you is your general odds of a sudden exponential growth. Nova Scotia, as small in comparison to Ontario as it might be, has enough concentrated population centers that our current higher odds of an outbreak compared to Ontario will make us more susceptible to one than they are, and one with devastating enough damage to be feared, even if not an utterly catastrophic one like Toronto might see. In that sense, having prevalence awareness is highly useful, and frames things in a useful context that should be part of the whole picture, but one that I haven’t really seen reported anywhere… which is why I went to make the graphic myself.
Well, I was way too conservative in my predictions for when the US COVID-19 case totals would surpass China’s. That’s according to the excellent (American) Johns Hopkins University interactive website!
I wasn’t sure of the American’s testing capacity, but that didn’t seem to matter much because they are confirming cases at a very high rate compared to many other jurisdictions. That is, the US hasn’t even gotten around to the most of the potential cases yet!
Wow! America is in some serious trouble, but I’m not sure they really have a grasp of it yet, on the whole and on the top among those making the biggest decisions. You’re gonna really need God to bless you to get through this relatively unscathed, America. I’ll even pray for you!
Next target, beat all of Europe, for not just a “win” but a “trouncing”. America loves being #1 at everything, after all, doesn’t it?
May the Force be with you!