Americans Will Be Stunned at their COVID-19 Numbers Soon! (An Educated Estimate)

So will the rest of the world unless you’ve been piecing things together.

Next to no testing for weeks with sufficient number of cases going around, from government direction to a health care system that doesn’t incentivize doing so.

People can spread for 5 days without having any symptoms, never mind once they do and still don’t get tested.

People ignoring social distancing and actually bragging about it! Though they’re not ignoring stocking up on toilet paper, apparently, and bragging about it, too! Typical American bravado of we’re better, can’t happen to us, or at least me, we got it covered, etc. We’ll see about that, one way or the other.

So how much will be the shock? My best guess from learning about the DOTS model for spread, with parameters for COVID-19, is it’s going to easily outnumber China’s peak by summer, if not sooner, pending how much testing will actually be done. It’s easy to say you don’t have a lot of cases, and be “honest” about it, if you don’t test to know… kind of like now.

But please do NOT spread like fear mongering rumour. I’m not claiming to be an expert. I just believe I have enough to know to put out a plausible guess, to see if that self-assessment is correct, or incorrect, and to what extent.

So this is “for the record” to look back upon.

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