For the first time, I will be sharing my weekly NFL game picks that I will be submitting in my office pool, putting my reputation as an analyst on the line.

I will be using an analytical system I developed based on spreads provided by Las Vegas, and how well they tend to do when they provide certain spreads. I added a few other factors to lean my pick one way or another where the odds makers are about even in their performance. I developed this system last year and got 178 games of 256 correct. That was 10.4 per week on average, a 69% correct rate that was as good as the odds makers, and better than all the ESPN analysts.

So if I were no better than the odds makers, why do all this extra work? That was because I started out with no data last year, and learned as I went along. I came back strong and outperformed the odds makers in the final month to pull even for the year. This year, I have a more complex system than last year’s, as well as experience, which I hope I will do better than 178 games. I will track and analyze my performance as the year goes along to make adjustments as needed.

I share my picks. Anybody can take what they want from them, but I’m not claiming I’m an expert and I won’t be responsible for any losses incurred by anybody who might use these picks. That’d be no more than I might claim anybody’s winnings.

So without further delay, here are my picks for week 1. Good luck if you’re making picks!

NE

BUF

GB

HOU

CAR

NYJ

SEA

MIA

ARI

SD

DEN

CIN

TB

DAL

PHI

SF

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