For the first time, I will be sharing my weekly NFL game picks that I will be submitting in my office pool, putting my reputation as an analyst on the line.
I will be using an analytical system I developed based on spreads provided by Las Vegas, and how well they tend to do when they provide certain spreads. I added a few other factors to lean my pick one way or another where the odds makers are about even in their performance. I developed this system last year and got 178 games of 256 correct. That was 10.4 per week on average, a 69% correct rate that was as good as the odds makers, and better than all the ESPN analysts.
So if I were no better than the odds makers, why do all this extra work? That was because I started out with no data last year, and learned as I went along. I came back strong and outperformed the odds makers in the final month to pull even for the year. This year, I have a more complex system than last year’s, as well as experience, which I hope I will do better than 178 games. I will track and analyze my performance as the year goes along to make adjustments as needed.
I share my picks. Anybody can take what they want from them, but I’m not claiming I’m an expert and I won’t be responsible for any losses incurred by anybody who might use these picks. That’d be no more than I might claim anybody’s winnings.
So without further delay, here are my picks for week 1. Good luck if you’re making picks!
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