Another Groundhog Day has passed. With this year comes news of a study by Environment Canada that over the past 30 years (CBC story), groundhogs have only been correct 37% of the time in terms of being able to predict an early spring or long winter based on whether or not they see their shadows. For something that is a dichotomy like a coin flip, if you were wrong more than half the time, then flipping the interpretation of the outcomes means you’d be right more than half of the time! With that logic, I propose we reverse the interpretation of results whether or not they see their shadow.
The NEW results should be if the groundhog sees his/her shadow, it’ll be an early spring, and a long winter otherwise!